OK, first off, I know I'm supposed to say my goal is to "just finish the race". But seriously folks, this is Kelownagurl talking. I'm too analytical and goal oriented to be content with "just finishing". I don't mean I have to have some pie-in-the-sky goal time - it's just that I know my speeds and how I've trained, and I think I can come up with some sort of time estimate for this race, however inaccurate it may be. :)
However, coming up with goal times for this race isn't easy. The bike is so dependent on the weather. And the run, well it's dependent on the bike and how my foot/ankle is feeling, and much much more. Anyway, I always like to record my goals to see how close I come so here goes.
Swim - goal 45 minutes or less
I swam the last 3 races (750 m) at about a 2:10 per 100 m pace. I have no clue if that's manageable for 2000 m but unless I have a panic attack or it's really choppy, I'm gonna say 2:15 per 100m and that'll be 45 minutes even.
Bike - About 3:25
If it doesn't rain, there's no wind, and I don't go too hard, I should be able to maintain a 27 kmh avg speed. (16-17 mph). I have ridden that distance much faster but I'm going to try to keep my heart rate in Zone 2 (141-152) and Zone 3 (153 -160) so I figure that means closer to 27-28 kmh.
Rain - will slow me down but won't tire me out.
Wind - will slow me down AND tires me out, which affect the run.
Run - 2:30 (?)
This, of course, is the big unknown. I've never run 21 km before and the longest I've run after a bike ride is 10km. The longest I've run period, is 18 km in 2 hours.
SO, I can only base my guess on my latest data.
My slow runs are usually 6:30-7:00 min per km.
My medium runs are 5:45-6:15 per km.
My fast runs are 5:00-5:30 per km.
Other contributing factors:
* ball of right foot has been achey and sore, sometimes downright painful.
* some numbness in the ball of both feet on the bike.
* PTT over the right ankle is sore sometimes.
If any of these things start to hurt, that will slow me down.
The run is a 10 km out and back loop, done twice.
I think my best case scenario plan will be:
First 5 km out, easy pace, 7 min km.
Next 5 km back, continued as above, maybe 6:45 (if feeling good)
Second 5 km out, pick up pace slightly, 6:15 -6:30 (if feeling good)
Last 5 km back, run as fast as I can comfortably run.
But then, that is only a plan. I may be so sore and tired after the swim and the bike, that I couldn't possibly keep up that pace, let alone do a negative split. However, I think it's possible so it's worth putting out there.
Realistically though, I'm going to hope to maintain a 7 min km for the 21 km. That would mean 2:27.
Transitions - 5 minutes
It's a long run from the swim to T1 and I'm not going to hurry, hurry in T1 or T2. I want to put on my sox, and gloves for the bike and my shin sleeves and hydration pack for the run so I will move quickly but not frantically. If needed, I may even stretch my calves before running.
Total time: 0:45 + 3:25 + 2:30 + 0:05 = 6:45
And just for curiosity's sake:
A choppy swim, windy rainy ride, and painful run time would be something like :50 + 3:45 + 2:45 + :05 = 7:25
And an absolute crazy fast time would be :40 + 3:15 + 2:15 + :05 = 6:15
So there you have it?
I wonder what will really happen?